Counterfactual
A hypothetical query about what would have happened under different conditions, evaluated against the causal model. Used by the grounding engine and world model to assess the impact of interventions and distinguish genuine causal relationships from mere correlations.
Counterfactual reasoning - asking 'what would have happened if we had done X instead?' - is a key capability of the causal model and world model working together. A correlation between two operational events might be spurious; a counterfactual test (would A have occurred if B had not?) helps distinguish causal from coincidental relationships. The grounding engine uses counterfactual evaluation to validate world-model predictions: if the model predicts that increasing throughput would have prevented backpressure, that prediction can be tested against the causal model's representation of directional dependencies. The dream engine also generates counterfactual scenarios during offline simulation to train and calibrate the world model on situations the system has not yet encountered. These imagined interventions must remain tagged as synthetic to prevent confabulation.